In issue 754 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight, we analysed the 2026 Asia‑Europe networks in the light of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which is now fully phased in. It requires shipping lines to surrender carbon allowances for 100% of emissions between two EU ports, and 50% of emissions between an EU and a non‑EU port. To prevent evasion, major regional transshipment hubs like Tangiers (Morocco) and Port Said (Egypt) are designated as non‑qualifying "last ports of call", which means that a vessel sailing Singapore‑Tangiers-Rotterdam, for example, is still taxed on 50% of the entire journey.

However, the data shows carriers are effectively mitigating their tax exposure, by utilising other non‑EU ports geographically close to the EU, which resets the ETS distance calculation, allowing them to report short sailing distances. By mapping the port rotation of each Asia-Europe container service, we can see that the newly announced networks reduce the aggregate ETS‑chargeable sailing distance by another 11%, compared to the 2025 networks.

Figure 1 illustrates the additional savings achieved through these network redesigns, broken down by alliance. While MSC has the highest total absolute ETS‑distance reduction compared to a Singapore‑Algeciras baseline, they and Premier Alliance have not significantly changed their ETS sailing distance over the past year. Rather, the new 11% aggregate reduction is driven almost entirely by Gemini Cooperation and Ocean Alliance, with their new networks achieving a near 20% additional reduction each, in their reportable sailing distances, compared to their 2025 networks. This allows them to close the competitive cost‑advantage gap to MSC.

Carriers will naturally argue that their port-to-port connectivity design is primarily driven by customer demand and operational efficiency. However, it is indeed noteworthy how these network adjustments happen to coincide with the ability to significantly reduce their reportable carbon emissions, shielding them from substantial ETS tax exposure.

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 All quotes can be attributed to: Alan Murphy, CEO, Sea-Intelligence.
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